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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-01T22:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27973/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. Brightening and broad area of dimming starts at 2023-12-01T21:15Z in SDO AIA 193, 171. Rising/opening field lines as well as ejecta off the SW limb visible in SDO AIA 171 around 21:51Z. Post-eruptive arcades visible at 23:24Z in SDO AIA 171 and 304 imagery. Associated with an M1.0 flare from AR 13500. Arrival signature likely combined with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream in DSCOVR data at L1 and is characterized by an amplification in magnetic field components, with B_total increasing from approx. 6 nT to 10 nT by 2023-12-04T05:10Z, and an increase in density. The solar wind speed increased from around 500 km/s to 520 km/s, reaching 550 km/s around 2023-12-04T09:00Z, but was already elevated from the coronal hole high speed stream influence.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-04T04:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-04T20:14Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 46.6667%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 3.37 hour(s)
Difference: -15.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-12-04T01:08Z

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